Trends on and forecasts for the Moscow market of newbuilds.

Limiting the soft mortgage coverage. In 2023, the Central Bank stepped up its crackdown on ultra-low interest rates from developers and the wide coverage of preferential or soft mortgage loans. The main reason was the resulting imbalance between housing affordability in the off-plan and secondary housing markets.

The spread of mortgage loans altered the principle of final pricing in the housing market. Previously, the cost of housing had been in proportion to people’s income, but now the actual housing sale price in the mass-market segment is a derivative of the approved monthly payment and the mortgage limit. In Q4 2023, the average monthly mortgage payment under a mortgage secured by a shared construction agreement (SCA) in Moscow amounted to RUB 51,800, which is comparable to the monthly installment in Q4 2021 (RUB 51,600). Mortgage loans remained affordable due to the loan term extension by more than 4 years – from 266 to 317 months.